11 burning questions for the second half of the 2024 F1 season

The second half of the 2024 Formula 1 season is right here.

The first half was full of twists and turns that we didn’t see coming, akin to Lando Norris’ first win, Charles Leclerc lastly tasting victory at residence, and a Mercedes back-to-back to shut out the primary half.

Could the second half of the season have much more twists and turns?

Here are the 11 burning questions that will probably be answered over the second half of the 2024 F1 marketing campaign.

Will Sauber get on the board?

The final time an F1 crew was points-less on the break? That came back in 2021 when Haas reached the midway level of the 12 months with out both Nikita Mazepin or Mick Schumacher scoring a single level.

Unfortunately for Haas, they ended the 12 months in the identical vogue, as neither driver was capable of crack the highest ten in any respect that season.

That was 2021. Now? Sauber is going through that very same scenario. However, whereas each Mazepin and Schumacher have been rookies that 12 months, Sauber has two skilled drivers in Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Gunayu.

And nonetheless, not a single level to point out for his or her efforts to this point.

Their finest consequence to this point got here again within the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix, when Zhou completed in P11. However, the early a part of the marketing campaign for Sauber was marked by issues within the pits, as they endured cross-threading of their wheel nuts, leading to lengthy stops:

While the crew made the requisite upgrades to enhance within the pits, as famous above, they nonetheless lack enough tempo to persistently problem for factors. Silverstone was yet one more instance of the deficit they face. “This race confirms that we lack tempo, and we have been sadly not capable of attain any of the targets we had set for ourselves earlier than the weekend,” mentioned Sauber Team Representative Alessandro Alunni Bravi following the British Grand Prix.

Sauber has dedicated to bringing the upgrades they should problem for the highest ten over the second half of the season. “We must make a step ahead, and for this reason we have to hold working laborious to deal with our weaknesses by means of a continued and

dedicated program of improvement, beginning already from the subsequent rounds,” added Bravi following the British Grand Prix.

Will that program be sufficient for Sauber to keep away from the dreaded goose egg?

Can Haas catch VCARB?

The battle on the sharp finish of the grid would be the battle that captures the eye of the F1 world over these subsequent few months.

But that’s not the one battle price maintaining a tally of, in addition to writing about.

A captivating battle is shaping up between Visa Cash App RB F1 Team and Haas for sixth, and that battle has tightened in current weeks. When the F1 tripleheader started just some weeks in the past, VCARB loved a 28-7 benefit over Haas within the Constructors’ Championship standings, because of an eighth-place end (and the corresponding 4 factors from that consequence) from Daniel Ricciardo on the Canadian Grand Prix.

However, whereas each groups have been shut out on the Spanish Grand Prix, a pair of P6 outcomes from Nico Hülkenberg at each Red Bull Ring and Silverstone banked 16 huge factors for Haas. While Yuki Tsunoda received VCARB on the board on the British Grand Prix with a tenth-place end, and Ricciardo added two extra factors in Austria, Haas is now simply 4 factors behind VCARB, with the margin 31-27:

Who will emerge victorious on this battle is one other enormous storyline to trace over the second half of the F1 marketing campaign.

Along with who will probably be driving for VCARB down the stretch, however we are going to deal with that bullet level shortly.

Can Ferrari flip issues round?

On the Sunday of the Monaco Grand Prix, Charles Leclerc was lastly capable of stand on the highest step at his residence race. After years of heartbreak and shut calls, the Ferrari driver may lastly benefit from the podium celebration after conquering the streets the place he realized to drive.

And on that Sunday, Ferrari was simply steps behind Red Bull.

Leclerc’s victory, coupled with a podium end for Carlos Sainz Jr., pulled the Scuderia to simply 24 factors of Red Bull atop the Constructors’ Championship standings. It was the closest the crew had been to Red Bull since after the Australian Grand Prix when an early-lap failure sidelined Max Verstappen, opening the door for Sainz to storm again from an appendectomy and seize the victory.

Since Leclerc’s hometown triumph, nonetheless, Ferrari has faltered. Leclerc has managed simply 12 points since Monaco, and whereas Sainz has carried out higher — together with a podium end within the Austrian Grand Prix — as a crew Ferrari has added 50 points since that day in Monaco.

Not solely has that allowed Red Bull to increase their present lead over Ferrari to 71 factors, however now McLaren is scorching on Ferrari’s heels. While the Woking-based outfit left Monaco 68 factors behind Ferrari, McLaren is now simply seven factors behind.

And they’re closing quick.

Can Ferrari discover their type over the second half of the season, or will McLaren — and potential Mercedes — catch them earlier than all is alleged and achieved?

Who else can breakthrough with a win?

Six completely different drivers — Max Verstappen, Carlos Sainz Jr., Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc, George Russell, and Lewis Hamilton — have tasted victory already this season.

Will anybody else be part of that listing over the ultimate 12 race weekends?

The prime contender on the listing of potential race winners begins with Oscar Piastri. Not solely is the MCL38 one of many prime vehicles on the grid this season, however Piastri has put himself in rivalry a number of instances this marketing campaign, with a pair of P2 finishes. He began second for the Monaco Grand Prix and completed there, and as he instructed me within the days after the race, he did have a second the place he may have caught Leclerc in entrance of him, however there was simply not sufficient room on the tight Monte Carlo streets.

Still, Piastri believes that McLaren has improved their automobile this season, together with figuring out a number of the “weaknesses” they’d a 12 months in the past.

“I really feel like this 12 months we’ve undoubtedly tightened up a number of the weaknesses,” mentioned Piastri to me in May.

“I really feel like different groups are caught up on our strengths. But we’ve undoubtedly caught up on our weaknesses as nicely. So I feel for me that’s a extremely encouraging signal,” continued the McLaren driver. “And the truth that we’re not too far behind within the Constructors’ Championship in the meanwhile is encouraging to see what we will try to do for the remainder of the 12 months.”

It does really feel like Piastri’s first Grand Prix victory is a matter of time.

Then there may be Sergio Pérez, who has a trio of P2 finishes of his personal. But these got here a lot earlier within the 12 months, and as we are going to talk about in a second the Red Bull driver is below substantial stress because the second half of the season begins.

But Pérez remains to be one of many seven drivers over the previous year-plus in F1 to win a Grand Prix, and whereas the RB20 is just not the dominant pressure final 12 months’s RB19 was, it’s nonetheless one of many faster vehicles on the grid.

Given how the primary have of the season unfolded, we would see yet one more winner earlier than the 12 months is thru.

Will Sergio Pérez hold his seat?

Red Bull thought a brand new contract for Sergio Pérez would put to relaxation the continued hypothesis about his F1 future.

But right here we’re, two race weekends forward of the summer season shutdown, and there may be renewed hypothesis about Pérez’s future at Red Bull.

As was the case a 12 months in the past, a mid-season stoop from the motive force — coupled with a tighter-than-anticipated title battle for Red Bull — has kicked these rumors into gear. Pérez has scored simply 15 factors for the reason that Miami Grand Prix, the bottom whole among the many eight drivers from the highest 4 constructors.

Over that interval Carlos Sainz Jr., who’s seventh on that listing, has scored 52 factors. Nico Hülkenberg from Haas has scored 16.

It is a string of performances that Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner referred to as “unsustainable” following the British Grand Prix.

Pérez went by means of the same robust stretch a season in the past, however whereas it led to hypothesis about his Red Bull future, the truth that Verstappen was so dominant meant that it was not a direct concern. But with Ferrari, McLaren, and now Mercedes nipping at Red Bull’s heels, the longer this swoon persists for Pérez, the extra doubtless it’s a crew catches Red Bull on the entrance of the sphere.

These subsequent two weeks are essential for Pérez as a result of if we get to the summer season shutdown and certainly one of Red Bull’s rivals has closed the hole even additional, the crew may look to solidify their championship hopes by making a change.

How does the remainder of the motive force market shake out?

Whether Sergio Pérez retains his spot at Red Bull over the second half of the season is simply one of many questions going through the motive force market.

But with six spots left to be confirmed for subsequent 12 months, there are nonetheless some drivers ready to finalize their plans for the 2025 F1 marketing campaign.

Carlos Sainz Jr. tops that listing, as the present Ferrari driver wants a brand new residence when Lewis Hamilton arrives subsequent 12 months. Sainz has been linked with a number of groups in current weeks, together with Williams, Sauber, and most lately Alpine, and is probably going the key domino left to fall.

Once Sainz makes his determination — which may come at any time — the remainder of the motive force lineup doubtless falls into place.

Beyond Sainz’s alternative, one of many different main items left to be determined is who will take Hamilton’s seat at Mercedes. Will it’s the younger phenom Andrea Kimi Antonelli, as many count on, or will Toto Wolff go down a special highway with a veteran choice? Has Mercedes’ current flip of excellent type modified Wolff’s pondering in that matter, or solicited his determination?

Yes, there are tons of storylines to comply with on the monitor, however with six seats left to be confirmed, there may be a lot to comply with off the monitor.

Where will Adrian Newey land?

On Saturday on the Goodwood Festival of Speed Adrian Newey, the legendary F1 designer and engineer, climbed into Niki Lauda’s 312T for a experience up the legendary Hill.

Was that only one second over a weekend of motorsport, or one thing extra?

When Newey introduced forward of the Miami Grand Prix that he could be leaving Red Bull in early 2025, it touched off breathless hypothesis relating to the place he would land subsequent. In the weeks since, Newey has been linked with a number of completely different groups, together with Aston Martin, Williams, and sure, Ferrari.

However, a brand new contender emerged lately, with reporting out of Italian media holding that McLaren might be in line for his providers.

Why may this hypothesis, and eventual touchdown spot, matter? Because Newey will go into the historical past books as one of many sport’s most pivotal figures. The engineer has been a part of 12 completely different Constructors’ Championships, in addition to seven completely different Drivers’ Championships. Some of his designs have been dominant forces on the grid, together with final 12 months’s RB19.

And with Newey probably arriving at his subsequent cease in time to finalize the event of his new crew’s 2026 challenger — the primary below the upcoming set of regulation modifications — that crew might be in a really advantageous place as that 12 months begins.

How excessive can Mercedes climb?

The hottest crew during the last 4 race weekends?

Mercedes.

As we’ve identified earlier than, upgrades to the W15 the crew began rolling out on the Miami Grand Prix haven’t solely begun to blossom, however they’ve completely borne fruit. The first signal was pole place for George Russell on the Canadian Grand Prix, and whereas he couldn’t convey residence the win Russell scored the crew’s first Grand Prix podium of the season with a third-place end in Montreal.

That was adopted by a third-place end from Lewis Hamilton on the Spanish Grand Prix, and whereas these have been two welcome outcomes for the crew, the true progress got here during the last two race weekends. Russell was in place to pounce when Max Verstappen and Lando Norris got here collectively late in Austria, to take a win on the Austrian Grand Prix. While that victory got here confidently, Hamilton’s win at Silverstone got here on benefit.

And over these previous 4 weekends, Mercedes has introduced residence 125 factors, probably the most of any crew on the grid.

They nonetheless face a prolonged climb to the highest of the grid. Not solely do the Silver Arrows path third-place McLaren by 74 factors, however they path Red Bull by 152 factors.

This could also be a case of “too little, too late” for Mercedes. But the Silver Arrows are at the least again within the battle, and when you concentrate on each nice comeback story in sports activities, getting again within the battle is often step one.

Can anybody catch Max Verstappen?

At the second, Max Verstappen enjoys an 84-point lead over Lando Norris within the F1 Drivers’ Championship.

Is one other title for Verstappen a formality at this level? Probably not. F1 has seen comebacks earlier than, with maybe probably the most well-known coming in 2012 when Sebastian Vettel got here again from 39 factors down over the ultimate seven races to win his third straight title.

But 84 factors? That is a large benefit for Verstappen.

Consider the 2022 season. Following the Austrian Grand Prix, the eleventh race of the season, Verstappen was simply 38 factors away from Charles Leclerc with 11 race weekends to go.

He completed 146 factors forward of Leclerc that season.

What may be completely different this 12 months? That hole in 2022 had loads to do with Ferrari’s struggles down the stretch. While Leclerc took residence P1 on the Austrian Grand Prix for his third race win of the 2022 season, it might even be his final win of the 12 months. Verstappen gained 9 of the ultimate 11 races to drag away because the season wound down, and whereas Mercedes got here on late that 12 months, their eyes have been on P2, and never Red Bull on the entrance.

This 12 months, nonetheless, is completely different. As famous earlier six drivers have already gained this 12 months, and as we noticed on the British Grand Prix generally even when Red Bull will get every part proper with Verstappen, as they did at Silverstone with a number of technique calls, the day ends with him not on the highest step of the rostrum.

So whereas he stays the prohibitive favourite, this battle is just not but over.

Can Red Bull maintain on?

While Verstappen appears to be like just like the clear favourite within the Drivers’ Championship, the Constructors’ Championship is a special story.

A 12 months in the past, Verstappen’s dominance was sufficient to energy Red Bull to their second-straight title. But as we’ve mentioned all through this piece, 2024 is a special story. Red Bull wants each Verstappen and Pérez to carry out at a excessive stage to win their third title in three years, and proper now they don’t seem to be getting that stage of efficiency from Pérez.

As a consequence Ferrari, McLaren, and now Mercedes are inching nearer to Red Bull on the sharp finish of the grid.

Here is the place these 4 groups stand forward of the second half of the season.

Standings on the midway level (12 races) this 12 months:

Red Bull: 373
Ferrari: 302
McLaren: 295
Mercedes: 221

At the midway level a 12 months in the past, how did issues stand?

Standings on the midway level (11 races) final 12 months:

Red Bull: 452
Mercedes: 223
Aston Martin: 184
Ferrari: 167
McLaren: 87

This 12 months groups can put stress on Red Bull, and it’s altering issues on the entrance of the grid. Add to that Pérez’s struggles, and you’ll see how the sport is altering this 12 months. Consider the Canadian Grand Prix. Verstappen gained, bringing residence 25 factors for Red Bull, however with Pérez ending outdoors the factors, these have been the one factors Red Bull earned within the Constructors’ Championship battle. So you may contemplate that an ideal weekend for Verstappen, and a median one for Red Bull.

Meanwhile, McLaren noticed Lando Norris end second, and Oscar Piastri fifth, for 28 factors. They outscored Red Bull and pulled three factors nearer to them on the prime.

As for Mercedes, additionally they scored 28 factors, because of a P3 for George Russell, a P4 for Lewis Hamilton, and a bonus level for Hamilton for posting the quickest lap.

Now, one race doesn’t a season make, however the Canadian Grand Prix illustrates what Red Bull is going through proper now: A tighter subject on the entrance of the grid, and three rivals that may chip away at their lead.

What may assist Red Bull down the stretch is the truth that these three rivals might find yourself splitting the factors out there, sufficient that not certainly one of them emerges to actually take the battle to Red Bull.

But proper now, it does seem like a title battle is shaping up.