According to Bravo Research‘s newest Macro Report, titled “Is the 2025 Bitcoin Crash Starting?” revealed on December 31, Bitcoin could face recent headwinds in early 2025.
ETF Outflows and Weak Stock Markets Pressure BTC
Currently buying and selling under the $100,000 mark, Bitcoin is below stress on account of document outflows from the most important U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) and lackluster efficiency in inventory markets. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s more and more hawkish stance has dampened optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s bull market.
Bravo Research warned that Bitcoin may “catch right down to shares’ weak spot” within the months forward. A divergence between Bitcoin (BTC/USD) and the S&P 500 was highlighted, with the report evaluating December 2024 market dynamics to prior tendencies.
“This is the alternative of September 2024’s setup, when shares hit new highs whereas Bitcoin struggled. Back then, Bitcoin finally caught as much as shares’ power. Now, we would see Bitcoin catch right down to shares’ weak spot,” the report famous.
Despite its parabolic momentum, analysts recommend Bitcoin’s value could retreat earlier than resuming its upward trajectory. Bravo Research recognized $80,000 as a possible stage to “purchase the dip” for the subsequent part of the bull market.
Bitcoin ETF Flows: A Double-Edged Sword
The report additionally emphasised the function of Bitcoin ETFs in influencing value actions. Bitcoin ETFs at the moment maintain 1.15 million BTC, with a mean each day accumulation of three,000 BTC. At this tempo, researchers estimate that Bitcoin may rise by one other 50% in simply 50 days.
However, Bravo Research cautioned that even a slight slowdown in ETF demand may set off a value decline. This was illustrated by March 2024, when Bitcoin costs fell by 30%, regardless of continued shopping for by ETFs.
“So, March 2024 was a good time to promote, regardless of Bitcoin ETFs nonetheless accumulating,” the report identified.
While ETF flows stay a serious driver of demand, the report underlined that BTC/USD could not all the time align with ETF shopping for patterns, making corrections a sensible risk.
Outlook for 2025
As 2025 unfolds, Bitcoin’s efficiency will probably stay tied to macroeconomic tendencies, ETF dynamics, and its relationship with conventional markets. While Bravo Research views $80,000 as a key stage for long-term accumulation, the short-term outlook stays unsure as Bitcoin navigates its parabolic part and the broader financial atmosphere.
