U.S. Open: 3 Bold Predictions for subsequent main at Pinehurst No. 2

The most difficult take a look at in golf has arrived.

The U.S. Open returns to Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina, the place Martin Kaymer decimated the sphere en path to an eight-shot victory in 2014. That marked the primary event held on No. 2 since Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw restored the course in 2010, as they eliminated the entire tough and re-shaped the bunkers and fairways.

They additionally changed the thick tough with native areas, hardpan sand, shrubbery, and crabgrass, growing the course’s problem. Only three gamers completed below par on the 2014 U.S. Open, with the opposite two being Rickie Fowler and Erik Compton in addition to Kaymer.

At the majors this 12 months, Augusta National performed traditionally tough, after which Xander Schauffele gained the PGA Championship at 21-under-par.

Nobody will go that low at Pinehurst No. 2, however that’s not a noteworthy projection.

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Alas, listed here are three daring predictions for the 2024 U.S. Open:

3. Two LIV Golf gamers end within the high 5

A bevy of LIV Golf gamers have the potential to play nicely at Pinehurst, however I imagine Bryson DeChambeau will flip in one other stable main efficiency, as will Cameron Smith.

DeChambeau got here near profitable his second main championship at Valhalla, ending one stroke behind Schauffele. He additionally tied for sixth at The Masters, demonstrating that he can compete with anybody on any course.

The 2020 U.S. Open champion will achieve this once more this week at No. 2, the place his beautiful size will probably be an enormous benefit. But he additionally putted nicely at Valhalla, and these greens at Pinehurst are practically unattainable. You should keep away from three-putting and play from beneath the outlet to contend on this golf course, and DeChambeau will depend on his technique of dissecting inexperienced complexes to try this once more.

He will fall quick as soon as extra, however DeChambeau will entertain followers and his fellow gamers on certainly one of America’s best programs.

Photo by Ken Murray/Getty Images

As for Smith, he’s arguably the perfect putter on the planet, and it’s worthwhile to putt nicely to win at Pinehurst. He has additionally turned in stable performances in three of the 5 earlier majors, so it ought to shock no one if you see him contending once more—and even go on to win.

At Valhalla, Smith tied for 63rd as he misplaced his mojo after opening with a 4-under 68. He truly gained greater than three strokes along with his putter on day one, which explains why he contended early. But he then misplaced 5.6 strokes to the sphere on the greens on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. And but, for all 72 holes, he led the sphere in strokes gained across the greens.

Nevertheless, Smith not often loses his really feel along with his putter, and I don’t envision that occuring once more. Instead, I imagine his world-class quick sport can have him vying for a second main title.

2. Like 2014, lower than 5 gamers end under-par

Brandel Chamblee appeared on the No Laying Up podcast to debate quite a few matters, together with this 12 months’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2.

At one level in the course of the episode, Chamblee mentioned the completely different traits of the 4 main championships. Augusta is meant to be enjoyable and all about custom. The Open revolves round mom nature. The PGA of America desires a good however powerful take a look at. And then, Chamblee characterised America’s nationwide championship as solely he can: “[The United States Golf Association] desires to scare the s*** out of you.”

That’s precisely what Pinehurst No. 2 will do to the gamers this week—scare the you-know-what out of them.

This golf course exams each aspect of 1’s sport however particularly locations a premium on method play and the quick sport. These turtleback inexperienced complexes will ricochet golf balls all over, leaving many to ask the all-important query: ought to I putt it? Or ought to I chip it?

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Regardless, whoever wins this championship will rank in the direction of the highest in scrambling share and strokes gained across the inexperienced. One’s quick sport needs to be on level. But so, too, does their method play as a result of gamers should miss it in the fitting spots simply to have an opportunity to rise up and down.

And then, after all, you need to putt nicely to win U.S. Opens, which is not any straightforward activity on these loopy inexperienced complexes.

To add to that, the course will play agency and quick, as little rain is within the forecast, creating a good greater problem for the perfect golfers on the planet.

So, contemplating all of those sides, 5 gamers or fewer will end below par, as this golf course will certainly scare the dwelling daylights out of the 156 gamers within the discipline.

1. An Australian or European Player Wins

If you’ve learn this far, you’ve realized that Pinehurst No. 2 isn’t your typical U.S. Open course with lengthy, gnarly tough that prioritizes discovering the green.

Instead, the course meanders by way of Carolina pines on sandy soil, a soil not dissimilar to those discovered throughout the Australian Sand Belt. That’s why I like Jason Day and Cameron Smith to play nicely at Pinehurst. Both have wonderful quick video games and are excellent bunker gamers. But Day has struggled at instances this season along with his irons, which is why I don’t really feel assured in him profitable. But he did tie for fourth on the 2014 U.S. Open, so he’s conversant in this golf course.

On high of that, this golf course has a component of links-style, not because of the climate rolling off the ocean like in England, Scotland, or Ireland, however due to the greens. You will see some gamers attempt to run approaches up and onto the placing surfaces. You may even see gamers get artistic across the greens, which is why I like Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Åberg, and even Alex Noren to play nicely and presumably win.

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Noren leads the tour in scrambling share, whereas Fleetwood and Åberg rank among the many high 13 in that metric. Other Europeans that would win right here clearly embody Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy. But don’t rule out Shane Lowry or perhaps a longshot hopeful like Victor Perez, a unbelievable iron participant.

Yes, I perceive that Scottie Scheffler has performed remarkably, together with his most up-to-date victory on the Memorial Tournament, the place he as soon as once more dominated.

Scheffler additionally has a world-class quick sport, so it might not shock me within the slightest if he gained at Pinehurst No. 2, snatching his second main of 2024.

But the previous two U.S. Opens at Pinehurst have been gained by non-American gamers: Kaymer from Germany and Michael Campbell from New Zealand in 2005. Scheffler snapping that streak and profitable is definitely a chance, however like Tiger Woods in 2005, I believe Scheffler comes up simply wanting a 3rd profession main.

The worldwide development continues this week at No. 2, with a non-American hoisting the U.S. Open trophy for the third time in 4 years.

Jack Milko is a golf employees author for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be certain to take a look at @_PlayingThrough for extra golf protection. You can comply with him on Twitter @jack_milko as nicely.