The dragons are again. And not a second too quickly.
On Sunday, “House of the Dragon,” the “Game of Thrones” prequel sequence, will return to HBO for its second season. The present grew to become a bona fide hit in its first season, in 2022, and helped kick off a torrid profitable streak for the community that included the beloved sophomore season of “The White Lotus”; the premiere of a brand new hit, “The Last of Us”; and the embellished closing season of “Succession.”
But over the previous 12 months, HBO has encountered a fallow stretch — uncommon for America’s pre-eminent premium tv community.
There have been disappointments (the music drama “The Idol” and the Kate Winslet-starring restricted sequence “The Regime,” as an example), and delayed premieres due to the double Hollywood strikes final 12 months. According to at least one extensively used trade metric, Max, the 13-month-old streaming service that homes HBO’s exhibits, has plateaued throughout that point. One high-ranking govt at Warner Bros. Discovery, HBO’s guardian firm, chalked up Max’s sluggish begin to “in all probability the lightest content material slate we’ve ever had.”
HBO’s one-year slowdown could possibly be underscored when Emmy nominations arrive subsequent month, often a trigger for celebration for the community. But in distinction to earlier years, exhibits from HBO and Max won’t be favorites in a few of the main classes, together with drama, a class that HBO dominated at the newest Emmys.
According to some award forecasters, HBO might end third amongst networks in whole nominations, which might be its lowest rating since 1996.
HBO executives acknowledged that they had been anticipating diminished award recognition this 12 months. But they stated they had been trying to the months forward, beginning with this weekend.
“Knowing the returning exhibits we’ve got, and the brand new exhibits developing, I can inform you I’m feeling superb going into the subsequent 18 months to 2 years,” Casey Bloys, the chairman of HBO and Max content material, stated in an interview.
In addition to “House of the Dragon,” Mr. Bloys pointed to a number of sequence debuting this 12 months, together with “The Penguin,” starring Colin Farrell; a prequel sequence from the “Dune” universe; and a brand new comedy from Armando Iannucci, the creator of “Veep.” Two hits will return subsequent 12 months: “The White Lotus” and “The Last of Us.”
“When I look to the long run, it’s not an unknown in any respect,” Mr. Bloys stated.
Industry insiders have lengthy appeared for alerts of an HBO stoop. And given its outsize success over the previous three many years, it usually attracts extra scrutiny — from viewers and critics — than different networks.
Still, the slowdown comes at a fragile time within the leisure trade. The profitable cable bundle is eroding, being changed by the dicey economics of streaming. The Peak TV period has ended, and Hollywood is within the midst of an industrywide contraction.
HBO’s guardian firm faces all of these challenges, and extra: The firm has a debt load of roughly $40 billion, and its share worth has declined greater than 30 % this 12 months.
When Warner Bros. Discovery was shaped in 2022, the promise of Max — a mix of Warner Bros. motion pictures and exhibits, together with these from HBO, and Discovery’s huge provide of unscripted content material — was an enormous justification for the merger. The thought was that the mix might compete extra straight with streaming giants like Netflix and Amazon Prime.
But engagement on Max — renamed from HBO Max in 2023 — has not been rising. The service accounts for 1.2 % of tv use within the United States, in line with Nielsen, simply because it did a 12 months in the past. Netflix’s share is considerably greater (7.6 %), and even middle- or lower-tier providers like Tubi (1.7 %), Roku Channel (1.4 %) and Peacock (1.3 %) now barely eclipse Max. Warner Bros. Discovery, nevertheless, stated its streaming division was worthwhile, whereas Peacock, for instance, misplaced almost $3 billion final 12 months.
At a convention this 12 months, JB Perrette, the president of world streaming at Warner Bros. Discovery, acknowledged that the strikes had contributed to a weaker lineup of exhibits and films. “We had a a lot lighter slate within the second half of the 12 months than we ever anticipated,” he stated.
Mr. Bloys stated the labor strife slowed the releases of most of the community’s hits — together with delays for “The White Lotus” and “The Last of Us” — and “The Penguin,” a present that Mr. Bloys stated he felt “very strongly” about. Another “Game of Thrones” spinoff can be scheduled to premiere subsequent 12 months.
There have been some current successes. The fourth season of “True Detective” premiered this 12 months, averaging roughly 13 million viewers an episode, greater than the ultimate season of “Succession,” in line with the community. The Max authentic sequence “Hacks” additionally simply completed its critically acclaimed third season.
Still, “Hacks” is more likely to have an uphill climb on the Emmys in opposition to the newest greatest comedy winner, the FX and Hulu sequence “The Bear.”
Netflix is extensively anticipated to guide all networks in Emmy nominations this 12 months, besting HBO for the primary time in 4 years. It’s additionally attainable that FX, which has one other sturdy awards contender in “Shogun,” could possibly be in a lifeless warmth with HBO and Max for the second-most nominations. Emmy voting started on Thursday, and nominations might be introduced on July 17.
But to HBO’s executives, questions on whether or not it might keep its excessive requirements are all too acquainted. The community, Mr. Bloys stated, has endured “varied intervals of hand-wringing” during which the trade fixated on any perceived indicators of weak point.
Shortly after “The Sopranos” led to 2007, as an example, rival executives labeled the community “HB-Over.” Similarly, when it encountered a drama drought in 2015, or when “Game of Thrones” went off the air in 2019, the community was peppered with questions on its future.
HBO, to say the least, survived.
Mr. Bloys maintained that it was “completely different this time” as a result of throughout these earlier intervals, HBO didn’t have any positive bets ready within the wings. This time, it does, he stated.
“Things will occur — Emmys will come and go,” he stated. “I feel what serves us is to only proceed to focus on our personal exhibits and doing the absolute best exhibits we will.”
