With the calendar set to flip in a number of days from June to July, that signifies that the looming specter of MLB’s commerce deadline is getting bigger and bigger on the horizon. With every passing day, we’re beginning to get a greater thought of who’s going to be utilizing the deadline to attempt to enhance their photographs at making a World Series run and who’s going to be attempting to jumpstart a rebuild for the upcoming season and even longer.
One of the groups that’s presently wanting prone to find yourself within the vendor’s group is the Toronto Blue Jays. This is definitely a little bit of an upset (in additional methods than one) for the Blue Jays, who’ve made the Postseason in three of the previous 4 seasons however got here away with none wins in every of these appearances. Depressing latest playoff historical past apart, the Blue Jays nonetheless figured to be proper within the thick of issues when it comes to the Postseason race. Sure, they most likely weren’t going to be competing for a divisional title (as evidenced by their 16 p.c odds in spring coaching of profitable the AL East, in accordance with FanGraphs) however this was at the least a staff that would realistically harbor hopes of returning to October baseball once more as they have been sitting on a 49 p.c likelihood of creating the Postseason this 12 months in accordance with FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds.
As of proper now, it’s a longshot for the staff up North to get again into the match. Toronto is now 37-43, they’re lightyears behind within the division — 13.5 video games behind Baltimore for first place and given a 0.0 p.c likelihood of profitable it. Their Wild Card hopes are getting slimmer with every day as nicely, as they’re presently 6.5 video games behind the Kansas City Royals for the third and ultimate Wild Card spot they usually’ve obtained three groups immediately in entrance of them vying for Kansas City’s spot. As such, FanGraphs is giving Toronto a 6 p.c shot at making the Postseason now. All you may say is that it’s higher than zero!
As you can most likely surmise by merely taking a look at their present lot in baseball life, the Blue Jays aren’t doing something notably nicely in the meanwhile. Collectively, their pitching workers has an ERA- of 106 and a FIP- of 108 — each of these numbers being good for having their pitching workers rated within the backside 10 of baseball. Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Bassitt are giving it their finest within the rotation and you can say the identical for guys like Yimi García (earlier than his harm) and Trevor Richards within the bullpen as nicely. Still, it hasn’t been sufficient to propel the Blue Jays right into a profitable place and it’s been a far cry from the nice work that this pitching workers did final season.
With that being stated, the pitching would merely be a thorn within the staff’s facet if Toronto was placing up numbers on the plate. As it seems, they’ve additionally gotten worse as a collective on the plate right here in 2024 — heading into motion on Friday, the Blue Jays have been collectively hitting .234/.312/.372 with a .304 wOBA and a staff wRC+ of 98. They’re hitting for a lot much less energy as nicely, as their Isolated Power has gone down from .161 final season to only .138 this season. That’s a bottom-five quantity in all of MLB and all the opposite numbers are mediocre at finest. So with the Blue Jays taking a drop in manufacturing all throughout the board on each the mound and on the plate, it’s instantly very straightforward and comprehensible to see how they’ve performed themselves right into a critical pickle right here.
So it’s easy, proper? A staff with slim-to-no likelihood of creating the Postseason ought to clearly be promoting, proper? GM Ross Atkins might as nicely simply go forward put up the ol’ “For Sale” signal and begin working the telephones with the total intention of beginning a rebuild, appropriate? As it seems, it’s not that easy. As Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic talked about in her latest article, the franchise is simply coming off of an costly renovation of the Rogers Centre and wouldn’t need to put followers by way of a rebuild so quickly into their tenure on the newly renovated ballpark.
Between that and the massive sum of money that’s already been invested into this staff to start with, it’s protected to say that this isn’t merely a matter of flipping the swap and saying “Okay, time to start out it once more.” Atkins advised McGrath as such in the aforementioned article:
“Every resolution that you simply make, no matter a stadium renovation or the state of your group, it’s a must to be considering of the long run, as nicely,” Atkins stated. “But as you’ve seen over the past 4 years, we’ve poured lots into the present staff, from a monetary standpoint, from a commerce standpoint, from a useful resource standpoint and we’ll proceed to do this till it doesn’t make sense to take action anymore.”
With all of that in thoughts, if the Blue Jays are nonetheless in an identical place in each the division and Wild Card race by the point the commerce deadline begins to grow to be imminent then I feel it might be protected to imagine that Toronto would begin promoting. If that occurs, then the query shifts in direction of whether or not or not they’ll simply follow transferring their impending free brokers or in the event that they’ll transfer their stars as nicely. If they follow merely getting what they will for guys like Yusei Kikuchi and Yimi García then it is clear that they are most likely going to attempt to run it again in 2025 with a retooled roster.
However, there seems to be a risk that guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette may very well be on the transfer. Those rumors obtained a pleasant and wholesome dose of oxygen when Vladito did an interview with Virus Deportivo and made these feedback relating to doubtlessly being traded to a staff just like the Yankees:
Here’s a translation of these feedback from ESPN:
In 2022, Guerrero Jr. stated he’d “by no means signal with the Yankees — not even lifeless.” In 2023, he advised the New York Post that it was “a private factor that goes again with my household. … I might by no means change that.”
But by no means say by no means.
“Like I inform you, I’m a participant and if a staff picks me or in the event that they do one thing, it’s as a result of they want it, clearly, and I’ll be completely happy to assist any staff,” Guerrero advised Virus Deportivo on Monday. “But proper now, I’m simply targeted on serving to my staff attempt to get out of this dangerous streak.”
If I used to be a Blue Jays fan, this is able to have me turning on the alarm bells. While strolling again the feedback about his beef with the Yankees may simply be an indication of rising up and maturing, that is irrelevant. The major level is that it is by no means actually a terrific signal for a staff doubtlessly conserving a participant round when stated participant is publicly speaking about being prepared to assist any staff he is traded to — even the staff that he had “a private factor” with. Again, it is not that I’ve a problem with what Vladimir Guerrero Jr. stated — that was about as professional-yet-honest of a solution as you can get to that query. It’s the truth that it was even entertained that claims lots about what is going on on with the Blue Jays in the meanwhile.
With all of this being stated, there’s nonetheless no indicators {that a} Blue Jays/Yankees commerce is on the horizon. All of this commerce discuss in the meanwhile is smoke with actual tangible indicators of a hearth close by. With that being stated, with every week that goes by with out the Blue Jays getting going, it looks like some exhausting selections might need to be made North of the border. Whether it is by way of a retool or an entire rebuild, it is clear that the Blue Jays cannot maintain going like they’re and anticipate the World Series trophy to return to Canada.
